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- Equity market losses accelearte, Nasdaq down 2%. Bitcoin breaks the mid-Dec low
- Hawkish bent in the FOMC minutes boosts the US dollar
- China continues to struggle with covid as Xian lockdown continues
- Boris Johnson: We do not need to shut down our country again. Cable hits 8-week high
- US weekly EIA crude oil inventories -2144K vs -3283K expected
- Oil extends gains to $1.10 ahead of US inventory report
- US December Markit final services PMI 57.6 vs 57.5 prelim
- Ford sales fell 17.1% in December y/y
- Gold springs to life. Another year of the January effect?
- Canadian November building permits +6.8% vs +2.3% expected
- Dollar moves a bit higher after huge ADP jobs report
- ADP December US employment survey +807K vs +400K expected
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY off the highs as Treasury yields stall
- US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 31 December -5.6%
- Tech wobbles not a problem for Europe
- Citi raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,100
Equity market losses accelearte, Nasdaq down 2%. Bitcoin breaks the mid-Dec low Posted: 05 Jan 2022 11:49 AM PST I tend to think that Nasdaq was already vulnerable after weeks of selling in the pandemic darlings was hidden by gains from mega-cap tech. The dogs are getting hit hard now and a potential top could be forming on the Nasdaq. For its part, the S&P 500 is now down 62 points, or 1.3%.Losses ar |
Hawkish bent in the FOMC minutes boosts the US dollar Posted: 05 Jan 2022 11:36 AM PST The market reaction to the FOMC minutes has been a classic hawkish response. Talk about the balance sheet shrinking and a high comfort level with hiking soon have pushed odds of a March hike to 80%. The dollar has rallied, yields are up and stocks are down in the aftermath. I'm always wary of the F |
China continues to struggle with covid as Xian lockdown continues Posted: 05 Jan 2022 08:52 AM PST China reported another 35 cases in Xian today. That's an improvement and hopeful sign that the outbreak can eventually be extinguished. However the toll of the total lockdown measures is weighing on public perception. Videos on social media showed a bloodied eight-months pregnant woman wait |
Boris Johnson: We do not need to shut down our country again. Cable hits 8-week high Posted: 05 Jan 2022 07:54 AM PST Leaders around the world are weighing whether their healthcare systems can handle the strain of omicron and acting accordingly. Johnson is re-iterating today that the UK doesn't need to shut down again. I think it was a close call before Christmas but he's growing increasingly confident in forecasts |
US weekly EIA crude oil inventories -2144K vs -3283K expected Posted: 05 Jan 2022 07:29 AM PST Prior was -3576K Gasoline +10128K vs +1775K exp Distillate +4418K vs +1525K expCushing -2144K API data from late yesterday: Crude -6432K Cushing +2268K Gasoline +7061K Distillate +4380K That's a huge build in gasoline in |
Oil extends gains to $1.10 ahead of US inventory report Posted: 05 Jan 2022 07:07 AM PST It's been a wonderful start to the US for oil bulls with crude adding to the gains today. WTI is up $1.15 to $78.16, touching a fresh high in the past few minutes. The rally so far today erases the omicron plunge that smashed oil on November 26. The weekly US oil inventory report is due at |
US December Markit final services PMI 57.6 vs 57.5 prelim Posted: 05 Jan 2022 06:44 AM PST Prelim was 57.5 November was 58.0Service providers recorded the steepest increase in input prices on record (since October 2009) "The series-record rise in cost burdens was commonly attributed to greater transportation and distribution fees. That said, many firms stat |
Ford sales fell 17.1% in December y/y Posted: 05 Jan 2022 06:28 AM PST Ford sold 173,740 vehicles in the US in December, a fall of 17.1% from last December. That could be a sign of omicron hitting consumers, as the weather was good in most of the country in the month. In the fourth quarter overall, Ford sold 508K vehicles, which is up 26.8% from Q3 but the industry fel |
Gold springs to life. Another year of the January effect? Posted: 05 Jan 2022 05:59 AM PST Gold daily Gold is up $10 in the past hour in the second day of gains. The rally erases the fall on Monday and we're now within striking distance of this week's high of $1831.Seasonally, gold has risen in January in 7 of the past 8 years. Over the last 20 years, the average gain in Januar |
Canadian November building permits +6.8% vs +2.3% expected Posted: 05 Jan 2022 05:30 AM PST Prior was +1.3% (revised to +2.4%)Residential +12.0%Non-residential -3.4%Multi-family +20.2%Single-family +3.3% Canadian home prices are sky high and that's a big incentive for builders to build. Margins are strong despite rising costs. However this month's data were boosted by |
Dollar moves a bit higher after huge ADP jobs report Posted: 05 Jan 2022 05:24 AM PST The ADP jobs estimate came in much stronger than expected (807K vs 405K estimate) and that has led to a knee-jerk reaction in the markets (although relatively modest given the huge miss). The US yields moved up about one basis pointThe NASDAQ index is now down around 70 points. It was down around 5 |
ADP December US employment survey +807K vs +400K expected Posted: 05 Jan 2022 05:14 AM PST Prior was 534K Estimates ranged from 300K-500K Goods +138K vs +110K prior Services +669K vs +424K Leisure and hospitality jobs +246K vs +136K prior Trade and transportation +138K vs +78K prior Health and education +85K vs +55K prior Full report Frid |
ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY off the highs as Treasury yields stall Posted: 05 Jan 2022 05:04 AM PST Headlines:US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 31 December -5.6%An encouraging sign from China perhaps?BOJ expected to revise up inflation forecast for coming fiscal year - reportEurozone December final services PMI 53.1 vs 53.3 prelimTreasuries selloff pause at critical junctureHong Kong to ban flight |
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 31 December -5.6% Posted: 05 Jan 2022 03:59 AM PST Market index 572.8 vs 588.4 priorPurchase index 277.3 vs 287.5 priorRefinancing index 2,351.3 vs 2,402.7 prior30-year mortgage rate 3.33% vs 3.27%A bit of a caveat to the report above as this covers both the weeks ending 24 December and 31 December. Still, it points to a noticeable drop in mortgage |
Tech wobbles not a problem for Europe Posted: 05 Jan 2022 03:39 AM PST Despite some mixed tones from Wall Street yesterday and more tepid tones earlier, European indices are keeping slightly higher once again today. That sees the positive form to start the new year stretch further, for now at least. Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.6% France CAC 40 +0.5% |
Citi raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,100 Posted: 05 Jan 2022 02:08 AM PST That implies a roughly over 6% upside from current levels. It doesn't sound like much but bear in mind that the case scenario likely factors in the more volatile moves that we'll be seeing throughout the year.In any case, here are some forecasts for the S&P 500 from the other houses:Morgan Stanley - |
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