Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Germany DIHK cuts growth forecast for the year amid supply, capacity constraints

Posted: 11 Feb 2022 12:13 AM PST

Cuts 2022 growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.6% previously in OctoberThis due to rising energy prices, raw material shortages, lack of skilled workers64% of companies saw rising energy and raw material prices as business riskThat is up from 58% previouslyOnly around 10% of firms expect supply bottleneck

European equities marked lower at the open today

Posted: 11 Feb 2022 12:04 AM PST

Eurostoxx -1.1%Germany DAX -0.7%France CAC 40 -1.1%UK FTSE -0.8%Spain IBEX -1.3%Stocks are keeping lower after the selloff yesterday as the market continues to feed on the possibility of a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed in March. It's tough to see sentiment turn ahead of the weekend but we'll see if th

Switzerland January CPI +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y expected

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 11:37 PM PST

Prior +1.5%Core CPI +0.8% y/yPrior +0.8%Swiss inflation ticks a little higher in December but core inflation is still holding and not really running away. That will allow the SNB to breathe easier considering the divergence seen with the ECB policy outlook at the moment.

Eurostoxx futures -1.2% in early European trading

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 11:11 PM PST

German DAX futures -1.1%UK FTSE futures -0.9%Spanish IBEX futures -1.1%The market turned after Bullard's remarks yesterday and never really recovered. The more negative sentiment is still percolating to today and it is tough to see things turn around on a Friday. US futures are keeping more subdued

UK December GDP -0.2% vs -0.6% m/m expected

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 11:04 PM PST

Prior +0.9%An accompaniment to the quarterly GDP report released at the same time. The bright spot is that the UK economy didn't contract by as much as anticipated in December despite the hit from the omicron variant.

UK Q4 preliminary GDP +1.0% vs +1.1% q/q expected

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 11:00 PM PST

Prior +1.1% GDP +6.5% vs +6.4% y/y expected Prior +6.8% UK GDP is estimated to have increased by 7.5% last year, with Q4 GDP as a whole seen 0.4% below the pre-pandemic level back in Q4 2019. That is at least an encouraging sign and bolsters hopes of a stronger recovery this year afte

Germany January final CPI +4.9% vs +4.9% y/y prelim

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 10:59 PM PST

HICP +5.1% vs +5.1% y/y prelimNo change to the initial estimates as this just reaffirms elevated inflation pressures in the German economy to start the new year. We'll see how the trend develops in the months ahead but it is unlikely to see prices materially subside in the opening half of 2022.

Trade ideas thread - European session 11 February 2022

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 10:31 PM PST

A 50 bps rate hike for March is now ~90% priced in.And we are seeing more calls for more rate hikes by the Fed throughout the year. How much more upside can there be for the dollar if that is the case? Unless we are talking about the terminal rate being somewhere around 3% to 4%, I'd say it may be t

UK GDP, German CPI on the agenda in Europe today

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 10:01 PM PST

The main focus is on what the Fed will do next after the highest US consumer inflation in 40 years.The market is jittery after Bullard talked up a quicker pace of tightening, calling for 100 bps by July. That sent equities reeling and the selloff is continuing today, with the dollar turning around a

Should we expect some hand-holding from the Fed?

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 09:44 PM PST

The big thing that the market is honed in on right now is whether the Fed will hike rates by 50 bps in March.There's plenty of talk of emergency action and what not but I would argue that the context matters. As mentioned yesterday, central banks are put in a rather unenviable position when it comes

Risk tones keep on the defensive ahead of European trading

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 09:18 PM PST

It was a wild day of trading yesterday after the US CPI data release, with the dollar initially gaining before tumbling in response, and then making up all of that and more as markets start to lean towards a 50 bps rate hike by the Fed in March. Bullard's comments were quite the game changer in that

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Japanese markets were closed for a holiday

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 07:45 PM PST

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bullard hits the panic button after hot inflation data GM, Toyota, Ford cut production following Canadian protests Economists at Goldman Sachs are now forecasting 7 Federal Reserve rate hikes this year Morgan Stanley bearish on NZD, says Fe

GM, Toyota, Ford cut production following Canadian protests

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 07:21 PM PST

I've been posting on the various vehicle producers curtailing production. Reuters have a summary piece up that have a few I missed out on: Toyota, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler-parent Stellantis said they had been forced to cancel or scale back some production at North American plants on Thursda

Honda to suspend a production line at Canada plant due to protestors

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 05:20 PM PST

Honda says it does not plan to halt US plants but warns the situation is fluid.Adding to the shutdowns I noted earlier in the week at Ford and Toyota. Protests disrupting supply chains and predictions will add to inflation pressures.

The backup of container ships waiting to unload in Southern California is shrinking

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 03:59 PM PST

This via the Journal (may be gated)  The number of container ships queuing to enter the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach declined to 78 vessels on Tuesday, down from the peak of 109 ships reached a month earlier, according to the Marine Exchange of Southern California. Port officials say it is u

US President Biden has advised US citizens to leave the country.

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 02:59 PM PST

US President Joe Biden has said "things could go crazy quickly" in Ukraine and has advised US citizens to leave the country.

US State Department repeats its advice for US citizens to leave Ukraine now

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 02:22 PM PST

If not leaving: "If remaining in Ukraine, exercise increased caution due to crime, civil unrest, and potential combat operations should Russia take military action."

Trade ideas thread - Friday 11 February 2022

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 02:06 PM PST

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

New Zealand January Retail card spending +3.0% m/m (vs. expected 0.6%)

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 01:44 PM PST

This is not the focus but posting as some folks will have an interest. Retail card spending +3.0% m/mexpected 0.6% m/m, prior % m/m Retail card spending +5.7% y/yexpected 9.0% y/y, prior 4.2% y/y more to come  

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bullard hits the panic button after hot inflation data

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 01:32 PM PST

Citi now sees 50 basis point Fed hike Why what happens next with inflation is so hard to predict Crude oil futures settle at $89.88 after a wild down and up and down ride after CPI US January budget surplus of $119 billion vs +$25 billion expected Mexican central bank hikes by

New Zealand data - January manufacturing PMI 52.1 (prior 537)

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 01:31 PM PST

BusinessNZ PMI 

ICYMI - Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 01:20 PM PST

New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong and China are all in. UST physical trading will grind to a halt and FX liquidity will be somewhat diminished. 

Closing levels: Pain in equities, carnage in bonds

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 01:07 PM PST

Oftentimes when everyone is expecting a big, market-moving economic data point the price action disappoints but that wasn't the case today. A hot CPI reading set off a bloodbath in bonds. Partway through US trading though, dip buyers bought US stocks but later St Louis Fed President Jim Bul

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today - RBA Governor Lowe testimony

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 01:00 PM PST

After the wild ride in markets following the US CPI data we get the Asian response.  On the data agenda ahead also: 2130 GMT New Zealand - BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI for January  prior 53.7 2145 GMT New Zeal

US 2-year notes were absolutely blown out today

Posted: 10 Feb 2022 12:53 PM PST

Between CPI, Bullard and rumours of an emergency Fed rate hike, the front end of the US curve was absolutely mangled today. There's been no let-up and we're at the highs of the day in yield, up a whopping 26.5 basis points to 1.613%. The chart has gone parabolic: More over with 10s only up
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